Watch out, he's got a set!

md261 on 26th November 2010

PokerStars $46+$4 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20)
Seat 1: Player1 (1620 in chips)
Seat 2: Player2(1780 in chips)
Seat 3: Player3(1110 in chips)
Seat 4: Player4(1580 in chips)
Seat 5: Hero (1760 in chips)
Seat 6: villain (1150 in chips)
Player4: posts small blind 10
Hero: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [8c 4d]
villain: calls 20
Player1: folds
Player2: folds
Player3: folds
Player4: folds
Hero: checks
*** FLOP *** [Qc 4c 5d]
Hero: checks
villain: checks
*** TURN *** [Qc 4c 5d] [8s]
Hero: bets 60
villain: raises 60 to 120
Hero: calls 60
*** RIVER *** [Qc 4c 5d 8s] [8h]
Hero: checks
villain: bets 290
Hero: raises 1330 to 1620 and is all-in
villain: calls 720 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (610) returned to Hero
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Hero: shows [8c 4d] (a full house, Eights full of Fours)
villain: shows [5s 5c] (a full house, Fives full of Eights)
Hero collected 2310 from pot

The Villain in this hand is a Fishbowl, and not an aggressive one. On the flop the Hero hits a weak bottom pair. The only thing to do here, out of position against a loose-passive fish who has limped UTG, is to check fold - there is no point building a pot with a marginal hand early in a SnG.

The turn brings 2 pair, now it is a hand worth betting and protecting. The Villain’s min raise sets alarm bells ringing, a passive fishbowl is likely to hold a set, an overpair or AQ here. Seems excessive to make this read from one min raise but he did limp UTG, and his stats showed he was ultra-passive. AA, KK, AQ, QQ, 55 and 44 are the hands he is most likely to hold. You could make a case for reraising here, but since the Hero is often going to be behind, he does not want to gamble all his chips early on, so Hero elects to call.

The miracle on 5 the street: The Hero is now ahead of all of the Villain’s range with the exception of QQ. Getting all the chips in is the aim, but the pot is small compared to the stacks, this is a great spot for a check raise all-in. The Villain will bet every hand in his range if he is checked to, but may not raise with some of the weaker holdings like AQ or KK, therefore it makes sense for the Hero to check, and raise all in after the Villain has bet. It is hugely unlikely the Fishbowl will be able to let go of AQ, and guaranteed not KK, and 0% chance of him folding a worse full house. If he has QQ then you just have to take your lumps, and wave goodbye to your chips.

md261