Middle Pair in a Raised Blind-on-Blind Pot

PezRez on 9th November 2010

PokerStars Game $35+$3 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50)
Seat 1: Hero (1935 in chips)
Seat 3: Villain (1110 in chips)
Seat 5: Player 5 (1420 in chips)
Seat 6: Player 6 (4535 in chips)
Hero: posts small blind 25
Villain: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [8d As]
Player 5: folds
Player 6: folds
Hero: raises 100 to 150
Villain: calls 100
*** FLOP *** [2h 8s Th]
Hero: bets 150
Villain: calls 150
*** TURN *** [2h 8s Th] [Ks]
Hero: bets 300
Villain: calls 300
*** RIVER *** [2h 8s Th Ks] [3d]
Hero: checks
Villain: bets 510 and is all-in
Hero: calls 510
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Villain: shows [Js Qh] (high card King)
Hero: shows [8d As] (a pair of Eights)
Hero collected 2220 from pot
Villain finished the tournament in 4th place

A8o is in the top 15% of hands, so raising from the small blind into a random hand is a no-brainer. I get called, which is not too surprising; my opponent has seemed fishy, and I expect with position he can call here with any combination of medium-high and/or connected cards.

The flop is decent: middle pair top kicker, and the chances he has a ten are not too large. A bet seems necessary to protect a vulnerable one-pair in the face of multiple draws/overcards which could hit on the turn. My opponent calls, and while he may have a ten, on this board a draw, gutshot or overcards is more likely.

The turn is a King; not great, but not too bad. It’s missed all the gutshots and none of those has paired, so unless he had a draw or pair with a King in his hand, I’m probably still good. The overcard gives me an opportunity to put real pressure on; in charging the draws, I may even get him to lay down a ten.

A total blank on the river, and as usual it’s time for me to assess my options. I still like my hand well enough, but my opponent’s stack is now about half the pot. I’m pot committed, but I should still think how best to play it. The way he’s been c calling, I feel like he’s got a draw or maybe a ten. He may have paired that King, but he probably hasn’t. I don’t need to protect my hand anymore, and I can’t see any worse hands calling a bet. However if he’s been drawing he may feel desperate enough to make a last grab for the big pile in the middle.

I check and he shoves; it doesn’t make any sense for a ten, so at this stage he has a King, two pair or a busted draw. I doubt the 3 has paired him, so the bluffs definitely outweigh the real hands and with about 3-1, I need to be correct here only more than 25% of the time. I reckon I’m about 50% to have the best hand when he shoves, so an easy call reveals that my now chipless opponent called the flop with a gutshot, called the turn with an open-ender and shoved the river with a miserable Queen high.

PezRez