Laying Down Trips on the River

PezRez on 21st November 2010

PokerStars Game $46+$4 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20)
Seat 1: Player 1 (1780 in chips)
Seat 2: Player 2 (1660 in chips)
Seat 3: Hero (1360 in chips)
Seat 4: Player 4 (1220 in chips)
Seat 5: Villain (1550 in chips)
Seat 6: Player 6 (1430 in chips)
Player 2: posts small blind 10
Hero: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [2s 6c]
Player 4: folds
Villain: calls 20
Player 6: folds
Player 1: folds
Player 2: calls 10
Hero: checks
*** FLOP *** [2h 2d 3c]
Player 2: checks
Hero: bets 40
Villain: calls 40
Player 2: calls 40
*** TURN *** [2h 2d 3c] [8h]
Player 2: checks
Hero: bets 100
Villain: calls 100
Player 2: calls 100
*** RIVER *** [2h 2d 3c 8h] [5d]
Player 2: checks
Hero: bets 240
Villain: raises 380 to 620
Player 2: calls 620
Hero: folds
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Villain: shows [As 4d] (a straight, Ace to Five)
Player 2: mucks hand
Villain collected 1960 from pot

With trips on this kind of flop, it is the first instinct of average players to slowplay. The trouble is that if they check and Villain bets, what will they do now? A check-raise instantly tips Villain to the strength of their hand, whilst a check-call is usually followed up on the turn by a check-check, and Hero winning a pitifully small pot whether Villain calls the river or not (or worse still, ending up busto because Villain hit his free card). Betting out is distinctly superior, so that’s what I do. Two calls, and I’ll be keeping an open mind about what they might have.

The turn is essentially a blank. With two calls on the flop, it’s likely someone wants to keep going in this hand, so I’ll just continue to bet, and I pick up two more calls.

The river is a good one too, so I’m happy to put a third value bet into the pot. It’s possible that I’ve just been outdrawn by A4 or 55, but not nearly likely enough to make me consider checking here. However, Villain raises me! And Player 2 calls to boot. ..

Here the average player (the type who likely would have checked the flop) will think, ‘I’ve got trips and 5-1 pot odds. Gotta call!’. Against one player, he’d probably be right. But the overcall is extremely threatening, and it’s worth putting some thought into this one.

First off, let’s look at it from my Villain’s viewpoint. I’ve bet three times getting multiple calls on each street into a paired board. I’m therefore not bluffing, and he’ll think I probably have a 2 (he’s right, you know). So why would he bluff here? It makes no sense at all. If he were to bluff, he would most likely do it earlier in the hand, not after I’ve shown tremendous strength and there is an active player behind him, who (let’s not forget) has also shown quite a lot of strength and could well also be sitting there with a 2.

So having largely eliminated the possibility that he is bluffing, what hands can raise here? To my mind, he must have three 2s at least. Seeing as with my hand I can only beat 24 and 25 (and he wasn’t likely to limp with those, no matter how big a fish he is), his range has me completely crushed. Against one player I’d probably squeeze out a crying call, but the overcall just makes this laydown all the more easy. 5-1 won’t help me if I almost never have my opponent beat. He made his gutshot on the river, and I save myself 380 for later in the tournament.

PezRez

P.S. Player 2, if you wondering, did in fact have the 42s, one of the few hands I could beat.