PezRez on 6 March 2010
I just played a long session where I saw an opponent make a classic mistake of wasting the value of his hand.
PokerStars Game $35+$3 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30)
Seat 1: Player 1 (990 in chips)
Seat 2: Villain (2150 in chips)
Seat 3: Hero (1535 in chips)
Seat 4: Player 4 (2630 in chips)
Seat 5: Player 5 (1695 in chips)
Player 1: posts small blind 15
Villain: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Qs Qc]
Hero: raises 60 to 90
Player 4: folds
Player 5: calls 90
Player 1: folds
Villain: raises 210 to 300
Hero: calls 210
Player 5: folds
*** FLOP *** [7h 2c 7c]
Villain: bets 1850 and is all-in
Hero: calls 1235 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (615) returned to Villain
*** TURN *** [7h 2c 7c] [5s]
*** RIVER *** [7h 2c 7c 5s] [5c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Villain: shows [Ts Tc] (two pair, Tens and Sevens)
Hero: shows [Qs Qc] (two pair, Queens and Sevens)
Hero collected 3175 from pot
In this pot you can’t really blame the guy for wanting to go all-in with his pair of tens. They are an overpair after all, the pot is big, and they look vulnerable. The problem is that when this bet gets called, he will nearly always be behind. His hand figures to beat my range, but my range, having called his reraise, consists exclusively of medium to high pairs and high cards. Lets have a look at how I will respond with each of these hands:
THE HIGH CARDS:
THE ALL IN: Will always fold to his all-in (unless the holder is particularly fishy and can’t let his AK slip through his fins).
MODERATE BET:May call a moderate bet with AK or AQ hoping he has a smaller Ace.
MEDIUM PAIRS (88-TT):
THE ALL IN: Might just call figuring it could be a man panicking because his AK missed. However as the pot odds are fairly poor, it is early on in the tournament and if the medium pair is behind it is drawing very slim, I think many players, if not most, will fold to the all-in.
MODERATE BET:Definitely will call! I am nervous he has an overpair, but will definitely not be in a rush to throw away my own. This is a great spot for the TT, with possibly multiple streets of action and his opponent crushed.
BIG PAIRS (JJ-AA):
THE ALL IN: Ship it! Most players will try to milk a high pair in this spot a little, so even JJ is a cheerful call.
MODERATE BET:Let’s be honest, however it goes down, he’ll probably lose all of his chips here, so it’s all the same really.
So when you look at it logically, his bet is a losing play, forcing out almost every hand it beats and getting called by pretty much every hand that beats it. Next time you’re in this spot, if you go all-in, slap yourself.
Incidentally this theme of terrible bets manifests itself in many situations, of this is only one. I am sure I will post some others soon enough.
Until then, GL to all