Will he risk all that Equity?

md261 on 31st march 2011

PokerStars $23+$2 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100)
Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Hero (5427 in chips)
Seat 3: Villain (2253 in chips)
Seat 4: Player 4 (1320 in chips)
Player 4: posts small blind 50
Hero: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [7c 7s]
Villain: raises 120 to 220
Player 4: folds
Hero: calls 120
*** FLOP *** [Kd Th 8h]
Hero: checks
Villain: checks
*** TURN *** [Kd Th 8h] [Kc]
Hero: bets 200
Villain: raises 480 to 680
Hero: calls 480
*** RIVER *** [Kd Th 8h Kc] [5c]
Hero: checks
Villain: checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Hero: shows [7c 7s] (two pair, Kings and Sevens)
Villain: mucks hand
Hero collected 1850 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1850 | Rake 0
Board [Kd Th 8h Kc 5c]
Seat 1: Hero (big blind) showed [7c 7s] and won (1850) with two pair, Kings and Sevens
Seat 3: Villain (button) mucked [Ah 6d]


The middle-stacked Villain in the above hand is a decent lower-stakes break-even player, although he does not play often enough to be considered a reg.

Pre-Flop: The Villain puts in a small raise from the button. Being fairly deepstacked the Hero elects to just call, the Villain is not going to be raising super-wide here, and reraising may encourage a stack from a large part of his range. You generally don't want to bloat the pot Out Of Position with a hand like 77.

Flop: In previous hands the Villain has had to fold often when the Hero has used the bubble situation to force the Villain off weak holdings by check-raising his c-bets. Consequently the Hero checks this wet board, reasoning that the Villain will be afraid of the 'inevitable' check-raise, so if the Villain bets, it is an easy fold.

Being Out Of Position, betting is not an attractive prospect for the Hero, as many hands can call a bet here and 77 is unlikely to improve on later streets. The Villain checks behind. This strongly indicates he does not have a hand he is willing to get all-in with, as he surely would have bet AK and KQ, assuming he could reshove over the 'inevitable' check-raise. Furthermore, he is unlikely to slowplay vulnerable made hands on this draw heavy flop.

When the Villain checks, his range will mostly consist of Pairs lower than a K (including JJ=QQ), A high, and a large variety of drawing hands.

Turn: The offsuit K on the turn is the perfect card. It is highly unlikely he has a K now. It is now time for the Hero to bet since his hand is liekely best, and it is a draw heavy board. The Villain raises, an unusual and unexpected move. He is a good enough player to have bet the flop if he had a K, but would probably just call with QQ-JJ for pot control in this bubble situation. QQ + JJ are possibilities, as is AT, but one would still expect him to flat call here most of the time. It is most likely that the Villain thinks the Hero is trying to steal the pot. The Villain is therefore very likely to be raising here as a bluff or semi-bluff. The Hero calls with a plan in mind, folding to a river bet.

River: The pot is now 1750, the Villain has 1250 left, as much as the 3rd player on the bubble. the river card is a blank. From his previous analysis, one could expect he Hero to check with the intention of calling an all-in. THere is a competing logic however. The Villain is no fish, he is unlikley to bluff off his remaining stack at this point on the bubble, especially when he will be giving such great pot odds to the Hero.

Furthermore a large % of the Villain's range including weak pp's and A high would be beating the Hero's hand if the Hero has a missed draw. Consequently the Hero called the turn bet with the intention of folding to a river bet. For the Villain, this is a prime spot to get value with AT or JJ, but most players will be too afraid to squeeze value here, and will be happy and relieved to check behind and take down the pot.

The Villain's range here is very likely behind the Hero's after the river, but if he bets, it is hard to see how the Hero cannot be beaten.
The Villain checks and shows A high.

md261