Ignoring The Clear And Present Danger

md261 on 24th February 2011

Seat 2: Player 2 (3935 in chips)
Seat 3: Player 3 (1720 in chips)
Seat 4: hero (1415 in chips)
Seat 5: Villain (630 in chips)
Seat 6: Player 6 (1300 in chips)
Villain: posts small blind 25
Player 6: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hero [Qc Ks]
Player 2: folds
Player 3: folds
hero: raises 70 to 120
Villain: calls 95
Player 6: folds
*** FLOP *** [Kc As Jd]
Villain: checks
hero: checks
*** TURN *** [Kc As Jd] [6d]
Villain: bets 150
hero: calls 150
*** RIVER *** [Kc As Jd 6d] [Qh]
Villain: bets 200
hero: raises 945 to 1145 and is all-in
Villain: calls 160 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (785) returned to hero
*** SHOW DOWN ***
hero: shows [Qc Ks] (two pair, Kings and Queens)
Villain: shows [Ah 2h] (a pair of Aces)
hero collected 1310 from pot

The villain is a standard 1st Level Loose Fish, the kind of player who often tries to be clever by *slowplaying* his good hands and hitting you with a *surprise* checkraise. Chances are with him strong means weak and weak means strong.

The Big Blind is an enormous Fishbowl, the hero doesn't mind getting into a pot with him deepstacked with a hand like KQ which plays well post flop, so he make a standard (but on the smaller side) preflop raise. It is no great shock to see the loose Villain in the Small Blind call . Being a loose 1st Level fish his range of hands here is fairly wide, including the premium hands like AA as well as the Fish hands like JToffsuit.

The flop is a mixed bag, the Villain is very very rarely ever going to bet out, he is unlikely to bluff at this spot, and he will likely check his stronger hands as he likes to appear weak by checkraising! Consequently the handsome and humble hero checks behind, since the prospect of facing an all-in check-raise with semi-decent pot odds does not look like a good situation to get into here, and the Villain is unlikely to have many outs if he is behind on the flop.

The Villain bets out on the turn, still no information is really gained, he is likely to bet stronger hands if his check-raising masterplan has been foiled, he is also likely to think that the mysterious hero's check is a sign of weakness and may have decided to bet with an underpair or pair of kings or Jacks. The annonymous Hero calls, reasoning there are still not many cards to worry about if he is ahead, and to re-evaulte when he sees if the Villain bets the River.

The river card is both good and bad for our secret hero, but mainly good because of the stack size situation. If the the Villain had pushed the river if it was a blank serious consideration would have been given to folding, no such thoughts linger now he holds 2 pair. The Villain bets most of his remaining stack, but not all in. First instinct would be to call, but that woud be an appaling waste of potential Equity. It is worth considering what hands the Villain is likely holding.

The Premium pairs which are now sets are possible. AK-AT would likely have repushed preflop, as would many of the medium Pocket Pairs. Ace rag and KJ are likely and his bet would be a blocking bet. A ten is unlikely though, he would surely have pushed if he had the straight, as it is tought to put him on and he is very short stacked so would likely be called often, furthermore, there not many tens in his preflop calling range, unlike weak Aces. For all these reasons it is +EV for the Hero to push over the top. The very fact that the Villain has few chips behind is important, the punishment for being beaten is small, so there is not much risk. If the effective stacks were deeper, the punishment for raising the river would be greater, since the Villain would likely fold many weaker hands like a rag Ace, and would likely repush himself if he had the straight, putting the hero to a tough decision.

The hero repushes, the Villain calls and shows Ace rag, a poor preflop call, but not played too badly post flop. The hero knew there was a chance he was behind on the river, but reasoned that the Villains calling range of the river repush would hold more Hnds which were beaten, than which were ahead, and thus maximised his EV.

md261