The Joy of Check-Calling

PezRez on 17th January 2011

PokerStars Game $110+$9 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100)
Seat 2: Hero (2015 in chips)
Seat 4: Villain (3950 in chips)
Seat 5: Player 5 (1530 in chips)
Seat 6: Player 6 (1505 in chips)
Hero: posts small blind 50
Villain: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Ac Js]
Player 5: folds
Player 6: folds
Hero: calls 50
Villain: checks
*** FLOP *** [Td Jh Kd]
Hero: checks
Villain: bets 100
Hero: calls 100
*** TURN *** [Td Jh Kd] [3d]
Hero: checks
Villain: bets 200
Hero: calls 200
*** RIVER *** [Td Jh Kd 3d] [Kc]
Hero: checks
Villain: bets 700
Hero: calls 700
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Villain: shows [5c 8s] (a pair of Kings)
Hero: shows [Ac Js] (two pair, Kings and Jacks)
Hero collected 2200 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2200 | Rake 0
Board [Td Jh Kd 3d Kc]
Seat 2: Hero (small blind) showed [Ac Js] and won (2200) with two pair, Kings and Jacks
Seat 4: Villain (big blind) showed [5c 8s] and lost with a pair of Kings
Seat 5: Player 5 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Player 6 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Villain in the big blind is a good, winning player, but to me he looks a little bit too aggressive. When the hand was played, his pre-flop raise percentage was 29%, whilst he had attempted to steal the blinds a whopping 45% of the time. I love to limp in the big blind, which aggressive regulars like Villain here will attempt to exploit. Because of this, I have to sometimes be willing to limp hands I’d usually raise. This Ajo looks like the ideal hand; if Villain raises, as I expect him to, I am happy to shove over the top, thus exploiting his aggression to win a larger pot and dissuading him from raising in this spot in the future. If he checks, it’s not ideal, but he is unlikely to include such a strong hand in my range and I may be able to use this fact to harness his aggression if I do make a hand.

This flop of KJT with a flush draw possible looks superficially dangerous, but if we think about it, it isn’t really. I have second pair with top kicker, which is very likely to be the best hand in a heads-up pot, particularly since my aggressive opponent declined to raise. Meanwhile the only overcard to my pair that could fall is a Queen, which will make a straight for me. As for the straight draw, I have one of the Aces, and if one falls on the turn I could still fill up on the river. The flush draw is also unlikely, given I only face one player. Assuming he has a random hand, with 47 cards unseen and 9 diamond among them, the chances he has a flush draw are about 5.1%. I don’t really need to factor in the presence of the flush draw too heavily in the way I play my hand.

My aggressive opponent will think that this flop will have largely missed my limping range, and when I check, he is likely to bet a very high proportion of his range, the majority of which I am way ahead of. So check I do, and my aggressive opponent obliges with a bet. Many players would raise here and end the hand, but I’m not too worried about seeing another card, as I elaborated previously, and would like my aggressive opponent to dig himself into a hole. So I call.

The turn is a diamond – not a good card, but as I explained, he is almost 20-1 against to actually have the flush. The main danger it brings is actually the flush draw, which increases the likelihood he’ll draw out on the river, but that may be a risk I’ll have to take. If I check here, my opponent will likely put me on a Queen, figuring I would have bet any made hand on this draw-heavy flop to protect it (think again, Villain). Thus an aggressive player like this will see it as a great opportunity to fire another barrel. Another check seems like the appropriate move.

My opponent bets again, and after the customary 5-second Hollywood I just call again. I am risking the river filling the straight or flush draw but let’s think about what happens if it doesn’t (which, don’t forget, is most of the time). My opponent will have seen me check-call twice on a draw-heavy board. Aggressive players tend to overestimate the proportion of weak hands in your range, optimistic as they are that their consistent plugging away will reap the desired rewards. I am quite sure that he will be quite sure I have a Queen, possibly with a diamond, and if he holds a hand with no value whatsoever he will feel that it is mandatory to bet, given I’m folding that Queen high (which often beats him in a showdown) every time.

The King on the river is a fantastic card, failing to help any hands I beat whilst also increasing the likelihood my Jacks are good. Without hesitation I check, confident my opponent will bet far, far more hands than he would call with in this spot. He bets 700 into the pot of 800, and I snap-call him, beating his eight-high and taking the chiplead in the tournament. To those that always thinks aggression trumps passivity, I ask: could I have extracted 1100 chips from my opponent’s 58o (which, by the way, was a 25-1 dog) in any other way? Answers on a postcard, please.

PezRez