Overshoving for Value

PezRez on 23rd September 2010

PokerStars Game $36+$3 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20)
Seat 1: Player 1 (1500 in chips)
Seat 2: Player 2 (1500 in chips)
Seat 3: Player 3 (1500 in chips)
Seat 4: Villain (1500 in chips)
Seat 5: Player 5 (1500 in chips)
Seat 6: Hero (1500 in chips)
Player 2: posts small blind 10
Player 3: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Td Jc]
Villain: calls 20
Player 5: folds
Hero: calls 20
Player 1: calls 20
Player 2: folds
Player 3: checks
*** FLOP *** [Kd Ac 3s]
Player 3: checks
Villain: bets 20
Hero: calls 20
Player 1: calls 20
Player 3: calls 20
*** TURN *** [Kd Ac 3s] [2c]
Player 3: checks
Villain: checks
Hero: checks
Player 1: checks
*** RIVER *** [Kd Ac 3s 2c] [Qd]
Player 3: checks
Villain: bets 20
Hero: raises 1440 to 1460 and is all-in
Player 1: folds
Player 3: folds
Villain: calls 1440 and is all-in
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Hero: shows [Td Jc] (a straight, Ten to Ace)
Villain: shows [Qh Ks] (two pair, Kings and Queens)
Hero collected 3090 from pot

It’s the first hand of the tournament, and Villain limps UTG. As he is one of the biggest reasons I’m playing this table, a chance to mix it up with him cheaply with a speculative hand should not be missed, and I limp behind with JTo. We take the flop with four players.

When Villain minbets, I have 5-1 pot odds with my gutshot. On a rainbow flop, I have four clean outs to the nuts; trouble is, I only hit on the turn about one time in 11.5. However my implied odds look good. Only 20 to call, with 1460 behind, means that the potential payoff is huge. It’s my favourite fishy villain doing the betting, so there is a good chance I can get some decent value from him if I hit. And the turn might get checked round, in which case I get two chances to hit my hand. Even though I don’t close the action, this looks like a call to me.

Sure enough, the turn was checked round, and I hit my miracle card on the river. Villain now minbets again. The first thing to note is that the players behind me won’t be giving me much action – they have shown no strength and so I am better off trying to maximise my value against Villain. He bet the flop, which suggested he had a little piece, checked the turn perhaps from lack of confidence in his hand, and now he is betting the river. He might have very little, but he might just be betting because the Queen has made him two-pair.

I don’t believe that Villain is ever capable of folding two-pair. If I make a pot-sized raise of about 200, I might just get some value from a raggy Ace or even a King. But if I make the drastic all-in for 1460 into 190, if it gets called any significant percentage of the time, it will be the superior play. Even if he calls the raise of 200 80% of the time and the all-in only 15% of the time, it still works out to give me a higher cEV. As it is, I don’t think there will be a huge difference in his calling ranges for the two bets, so my choice is clear: in it goes!
As I suspected, Villain just couldn’t lay down two-pair.

Any time that you have the nuts and there is a hand your opponent may just not be able to fold, you should consider moving in, even if it is a ridiculous overbet (as in this case). Other examples would be a full house or nut flush when an opponent may have a lower flush; or to push a straight if you think your opponent may have flopped a set. In the long term, it will help your bottom line, even if you don’t feel very sophisticated shoving 1460 into a pot of 190...

PezRez