Recognising a Hand's Value

md261 on 4 May 2010

The hand below is a heads-up situation against a good regular, who I haven't played with much, so there is not much meta-game.

PokerStars Game $55+$5 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200)
Seat 1: Villain(2800 in chips)
Seat 3: Hero(6200 in chips)
Villain: posts small blind 100
Hero: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to md261 [Qs 3h]
Villain: calls 100
Hero: checks
*** FLOP *** [7c 7s 8s]
Hero: checks
Villain: checks
*** TURN *** [7c 7s 8s] [Kc]
Hero: checks
Villain: bets 200
Hero: calls 200
*** RIVER *** [7c 7s 8s Kc] [7h]
Hero: checks
Villain: bets 600
Hero: calls 600
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Villain: shows [Ts 4h] (three of a kind, Sevens)
Hero: shows [Qs 3h] (three of a kind, Sevens - King+Queen kicker)
Hero collected 2000 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 2000 | Rake 0
Board [7c 7s 8s Kc 7h]
Seat 1: villain (button) (small blind) showed [Ts 4h] and lost with three of a kind, Sevens
Seat 3: hero (big blind) showed [Qs 3h] and won (2000) with three of a kind, Sevens


The way that the cards have been dealt in this heads-up have meant that I have been super-aggressive, with lots of small bets, raises, and check-raises. Consequently my image is very aggressive and tricky, with lots of moves.

Bearing in mind my image, I would expect the Villain to bet any piece of the flop, thinking that I would be likely to check-raise him as a stone bluff. He checks behind, and a King appears on 4th street; this is a good card, as I was already behind King high, and it is now less likely he has a King.

I check the turn and the Villain bets, I decide to play my hand for showdown value, as his bet suggests he either has a King, an unlikely slowplayed 7, or most likely a worse hand which he is bluffing with. I feel he would have bet any piece of the flop, such as an 8, flush draw or straight draw/overcards, with the intention of stacking all in if I were to check-raise. An Ace high also doesn't make much sense, as if he didn't bet the flop with it, he would be unlikely to do so on the turn.

With all these factors in mind, I decide to call, there is still a fair chance I am beaten, but i am getting pot odds, and my hand is well disguised. I haven't been calling in this Heads-Up, only betting and raising, so he could well think I have a weak hand like a flush draw or some form of straight draw, rather than a weak, but made hand (Q high).

The river 7 is perfect, all draws the Villain could THINK I may be holding have missed. I check, as just like with the turn, If I bet I will only be called by better hands, and may be forced to fold if worse hands decide to raise me (the curse of being out of position). The Villain puts in a stout river bet, which polarises his range, he would not be betting his own Q high or even A high this strong, as he would only be value betting himself, as I would be unlikely to call with a worse hand.

Hands which would follow the line he has taken are an unlikely case 7, a King, or a bluffing hand on the turn, which has been followed up by a desperation bluff on the river.

My Queen high beats all bluffing hands, and the Villain most likely has a King or nothing. With this in mind I call. If I had bet out at any point in this hand I feel fairly sure that I would have lost this pot, but I used the good turn and river card to maximise my hands showdown value, by catching all bluffs.

Queen rag certainly looks weak, but there are not too many hands which beat it, and all slightly superior hands are unlikley to have been played the way the Villain has played it. Essentially my bluff catching hand is almost as good as pocket Queens here, as he either has a pair of Kings or better, or worse than Queen high.


md261