Great Luck With The Nuts

PezRez on 9th April 2010

Luck in poker is so much more than who wins the all-ins. There are myriad factors which affect your results in real ways - cold-decks, even seating arrangements, and let's not forget that sometimes you just seem to be lucky in all the hands that matter and unlucky in the ones that don't. Sometimes you get really lucky even though you had the nuts all along. I had one of those hands today.

PokerStars Game $46+$4 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30)

Seat 1: Villain 1 (1000 in chips)

Seat 2: Player 2 (2420 in chips)

Seat 3: Player 3 (1460 in chips)

Seat 4: jag024 (1060 in chips)

Seat 5: Villain 2 (1120 in chips)

Seat 6: Hero (1940 in chips)

Villain 2: posts small blind 15

Hero: posts big blind 30

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to Hero [8s 8h]

Villain 1: raises 60 to 90

Player 2: folds

Player 3: folds

jag024: folds

Villain 2: calls 75

Hero: calls 60

*** FLOP *** [5d 8d 8c]

Villain 2: checks

Hero: checks

Villain 1: checks

*** TURN *** [5d 8d 8c] [9c]

Villain 2: bets 30

Hero: raises 120 to 150

Villain 1: calls 150

Villain 2: calls 120

*** RIVER *** [5d 8d 8c 9c] [9h]

Villain 2: bets 150

Hero: raises 1550 to 1700 and is all-in

Villain 1: calls 760 and is all-in

Villain 2: calls 730 and is all-in

Uncalled bet (820) returned to Hero

*** SHOW DOWN ***

Hero: shows [8s 8h] (four of a kind, Eights)

Villain 2: shows [9d Ah] (a full house, Nines full of Eights)

Hero collected 240 from side pot

Villain 1: shows [Ad 9s] (a full house, Nines full of Eights)

Hero collected 3000 from main pot

Weird hand. Only running aces or running nines would win me a pot this size, and there are only two of each left in the deck.

On the river I agonised for a while over what to do. I didn't think Villain 1 had a 9, but I knew he had something. Villain 2 however I strongly suspected had exactly that. Should I stack, and lose Villain 1? Should I make a very small raise, to extract value from Villain 1, assuming that Villain 2 will come back over the top with his 9? But would he definitely come over the top?

In the end I thought 'F♠♥♣ it - Staaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack' and it turns out I needn't have wasted my time over it. I went runner-runner for a huge pot, and I had the nuts the whole time.

PezRez